Don’t miss the driverless bus (op ed)
See today’s Detroit News for a brief op ed where I argue that as automated vehicle tech advances, buses will remain indispensable — and they are uniquely suited to exploit the technologies soonest to emerge. I’ve posted the unedited version of the article below to allow for more nuance.
Safe roads, free-flowing traffic, robot-driven taxis at your beck and call. But where are the buses?
Indeed, imaginings of the future driverless city often give short shrift to buses. Yet, as automated vehicle technology advances, buses will remain indispensable for moving large numbers of people through heavily traveled areas — even when automated, only so many cars will be able to squeeze onto busy roads. Moreover, buses are uniquely suited to exploit the technologies available now and soon to emerge.
Communicating with each other to harmonize their movements, automated vehicles could drive in close formation. This might induce visions of dense swarms of robot cars flowing down the roads, chauffeuring us in safety, comfort and privacy. What would be the point of riding a bus? To answer that, consider a few numbers.
When humans are driving, around 2000 cars can flow past a given point on a freeway lane in an hour. With robots at the wheel, that rate could double.
But bus rapid transit — buses running on exclusive lanes and administered other performance enhancements — can carry tens of thousands of travelers every hour. Automated cars simply won’t be able to cram together tightly enough to move so many people down a lane. Buses will still be the most efficient way to move people where road space is at a premium.
What if people shared rides in taxis instead? Based on their simulations of future scenarios in Lisbon, the International Transport Forum reported that if people traveled mainly in “TaxiBots” seating up to eight passengers, the average trip would be almost 20 percent quicker than in a present-day scenario. But simulations also showed traffic spilling over onto once quiet secondary streets. Those streets have the capacity to absorb increased traffic, but in doing so, they would become less welcoming places to live, walk, and cycle.
Buses have another advantage: even the less advanced automation technologies that are already or soon to be available can be particularly useful for buses.
It may be a long wait until robots are capable of driving on any road, anytime — even Google has cautioned that this echelon of automation may be 30 years away. But in the meantime, less sophisticated automated vehicles can drive themselves without human backup — in controlled environments. This strategy of simplification has enabled rail transit systems like Vancouver’s SkyTrain to operate sans driver since the ‘80s.
Similarly, even while automation tech is still in its adolescence, driverless buses could run on protected lanes. Buses don’t need to travel every street — a sparse network of protected lanes would suffice. And buses would eke more passenger mobility out of those lanes than cars could.
Spared the cost of driver labour — which makes up the bulk of bus operating costs — transit providers could massively upgrade service. Above all, driverless buses could run much more frequently, slashing the time you have to wait for the next bus to pull up at your stop.
As driverless taxis and share taxis become technologically feasible, they will outperform buses in lightly traveled areas. But when and where there is intense demand for mobility, buses will remain vital.
Some cities are contemplating using small automated shuttles to help travelers get to and from stations for high-capacity bus and rail lines. Designs vary, with passenger capacities from two to a dozen, and speeds from less than 10 up to 40 km/h. Such service would be useful where walking and cycling is less viable, such as in neighbourhoods with predominantly elderly populations.
But running frequent automated buses with high passenger capacities in protected lanes would boost mobility far more. There will be challenges, of course — helping bus drivers through the labour transition, for one. But the first cities to engage with those challenges and use automation to dramatically upgrade bus service will also be the first cities where citizens reap major benefits from automated vehicles.